What 90¢ with 2 minutes left has meant

In these markets a price is a chance: Yes at 90¢ means traders put about a 90% chance on Bitcoin finishing up. How often has that been right? The trade history answers it, window by window.

How often each price ended Yes

For every window, the last price Yes traded at in each stretch of time left, and whether the window then ended Yes. A price is priced right when it ends Yes about as often as it says: 90–95¢ about 92% of the time.

1 to 2 minutes left

Yes last traded at	Windows	Ended Yes
50–55¢	4	100%
55–60¢	3	33%
60–65¢	4	75%
65–70¢	1	0%
70–75¢	3	100%
75–80¢	6	50%
80–85¢	6	100%
85–90¢	3	100%
90–95¢	19	89%
95–100¢	262	99%

2 to 5 minutes left

Yes last traded at	Windows	Ended Yes
50–55¢	8	38%
55–60¢	7	71%
60–65¢	10	60%
65–70¢	9	89%
70–75¢	11	73%
75–80¢	9	78%
80–85¢	12	75%
85–90¢	20	75%
90–95¢	33	94%
95–100¢	190	98%

From Oct 26 2026 to Nov 2 2026: the last 7 days of the trade history. Source: the market's own trades, one row per window. The Stats page has every price and every stretch of time left, and Pro covers the whole history since the market began. The Lab ranks the site's indicators by how much more often their side won than the price said.

Reading it

A few windows in a row can make any row look wrong; the windows column says how much there is to go on. With minutes left, a 90¢ side still loses now and then - the final minute's average can still move - and the closer to the close, the more each second already counts.

See it live