Disclaimer

Last updated October 28, 2026

This site is informational only. Nothing here is investment, trading or financial advice, and nothing here is tailored to you. Labels such as "Buy Up" or "Buy Down" say what a published signal or model reads from market data by fixed rules, the same for everyone; they are not a recommendation to you to trade. Event contracts involve risk of loss. Prices come from public sources and may be delayed, incomplete or wrong; our composite price is an estimate, not the CF Benchmarks BRTI. Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy. This site is not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by the exchange that lists these contracts, CF Benchmarks, or any exchange or data provider named on this site.

Information, not advice

The site shows measurements and signals: the SettleMath model's chance next to the market's price, signals that say which side their rules point to ("Buy Up", "Buy Down"), how often similar prices settled Up in the past, and how accurate all of these have been. It is the same for every visitor and is not tailored to anyone. A signal's label says what its fixed rules read from public data at that moment; it is not a judgment about your money, your goals or what you can afford to lose, and nothing on the site is a personal recommendation to enter or exit any position.

Our numbers are estimates

• Bitcoin price. The markets these pages describe settle on an official index (the CF Benchmarks BRTI). The site does not show that index. It shows its own composite: the middle of the prices from Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp each second. That is close to the official index but not the same, and the site measures and shows how far apart they have been.
• The models. The fair value assumes Bitcoin moves like a random walk with no drift and steady volatility over the window, with normally distributed moves; real prices have jumps and fat tails. The SettleMath model is a statistical fit to past markets, used only in the stretches of a market where it beat the market's own price on markets it was not fit on, and that can change as new markets come in. The site's accuracy record exists to show how well, or badly, both have done.
• History. Base rates come from the market's past trades. The past may not be like the future, and small samples can mislead.

Delays and errors

The free view is deliberately 60 seconds behind. Any number can also be late, missing or wrong because a source failed. Each live number shows how fresh it is; when a source goes quiet the site tries to say so, but it can't catch every problem.

Risk

Event contracts can lose money, including the whole amount put into a contract. Past accuracy, ours or anyone's, does not guarantee future accuracy.

No affiliation

The site is independent. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by the exchange that lists these contracts, CF Benchmarks, Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp or Deribit. Names of data sources are used only to say where data comes from.