History tables Live

How the 15-minute Bitcoin up/down market has actually played out: how often each price ended Yes, how often the side ahead lost, and how the hours of the day differ.

Latest change

Oct 31 2026: The SettleMath model leans only where it beat the price by more than luck. In its first two and a half days the model's side won 31 of the 81 markets where it leaned, 38.3%, where the price said 45.1%: it leaned on edges that were luck. Before, a stretch of the market was used whenever it scored even slightly better than the price on the newest fifth of the markets it was not fitted on, and in the last minute our settlement arithmetic was added without being tested. Now, at each hourly refit, a stretch is used only when a walk-forward test passes: the 14 days in five blocks, each block after the first predicted by a fit on the blocks before it alone, and the model ahead of the price there by two standard errors or more, market by market, over 100 markets or more. The last minute's settlement arithmetic is tested on its own the same way, on the markets since it was added (Oct 28). Everywhere else the model is the market's price: no lean, no line apart, no buy signal. It may lean rarely or not at all; that is the honest answer when the readings say nothing the price doesn't. Its earlier record stays on this page, and its leans from this change on are shown on their own. Every change, dated

Free view: these tables cover the last 7 days only. Pro shows them over the whole trade history.

662 windows that closed from Oct 26, 2026, 5:45 AM UTC to Nov 2, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC. Updated every 10 minutes.

How often each price ended Yes

For every past window: the last trade in each stretch of time left, and whether Yes won. Cells under 20 windows are dimmed.

How often Yes won when its last trade in that time range was at that price. Small grey numbers: windows.
Yes price	10-15 min	5-10 min	2-5 min	1-2 min	30-60 s	0-30 s
95-100¢	100%7	98%102	98%190	99%262	100%298	100%316
90-95¢	96%26	95%37	94%33	89%19	100%9	–0
85-90¢	90%21	85%26	75%20	100%3	67%3	–0
80-85¢	66%35	83%29	75%12	100%6	50%2	–0
75-80¢	73%30	80%20	78%9	50%6	100%1	–0
70-75¢	69%42	71%24	73%11	100%3	100%2	–0
65-70¢	62%40	62%16	89%9	0%1	0%1	–0
60-65¢	61%41	46%24	60%10	75%4	–0	–0
55-60¢	63%38	38%13	71%7	33%3	100%1	–0
50-55¢	50%46	40%20	38%8	100%4	–0	–0
45-50¢	37%41	47%19	40%10	60%5	–0	–0
40-45¢	37%43	46%28	47%15	100%1	100%1	–0
35-40¢	36%39	44%25	44%9	29%7	–0	–0
30-35¢	28%43	26%23	40%10	17%6	–0	–0
25-30¢	31%48	26%27	31%13	33%3	–0	–0
20-25¢	32%44	14%36	40%10	50%2	–0	–0
15-20¢	6%31	20%35	15%20	20%10	0%1	–0
10-15¢	19%26	16%32	5%20	27%15	100%2	–0
5-10¢	5%19	9%46	11%37	5%21	0%7	–0
0-5¢	0%2	1%80	1%209	0%281	0%334	0%346

How often No won when its last trade in that time range was at that price. Small grey numbers: windows.
No price	10-15 min	5-10 min	2-5 min	1-2 min	30-60 s	0-30 s
95-100¢	100%2	98%83	99%211	100%281	100%334	100%346
90-95¢	86%22	91%47	87%39	96%23	100%7	–0
85-90¢	89%28	89%35	100%18	71%17	0%2	–0
80-85¢	85%33	75%32	75%20	83%6	100%1	–0
75-80¢	70%46	89%38	80%10	33%3	–0	–0
70-75¢	69%45	68%28	57%14	100%3	–0	–0
65-70¢	77%47	75%20	73%11	86%7	–0	–0
60-65¢	59%34	54%26	40%5	60%5	–0	–0
55-60¢	64%44	48%25	59%17	33%3	0%1	–0
50-55¢	62%42	55%20	50%8	25%4	–0	–0
45-50¢	40%50	60%20	50%10	0%3	–0	–0
40-45¢	40%35	70%20	57%7	67%3	0%1	–0
35-40¢	41%41	35%17	22%9	25%4	–0	–0
30-35¢	39%41	47%15	11%9	100%1	100%1	–0
25-30¢	32%38	26%23	27%11	0%3	0%2	–0
20-25¢	25%36	22%27	33%9	43%7	0%1	–0
15-20¢	31%29	12%26	17%12	0%6	33%3	–0
10-15¢	6%18	21%24	24%21	25%4	50%2	–0
5-10¢	4%24	3%34	6%31	6%18	0%10	–0
0-5¢	0%7	2%102	2%190	1%261	0%297	0%316

How often the side ahead lost

Pro shows how often the side ahead at each minute mark went on to lose, read from the market's price over the whole trade history and from our BTC price against the strike.

By time of day

Each window by the hour it started. Pro adds how often the side ahead with 5 min left went on to win. The move: how far the official value ended from the strike, either way.

	Windows	Average move	Move %
12 AM–1 AM	26	$73	0.092%
1 AM–2 AM	32	$67	0.085%
2 AM–3 AM	24	$83	0.105%
3 AM–4 AM	24	$118	0.148%
4 AM–5 AM	28	$56	0.071%
5 AM–6 AM	28	$76	0.096%
6 AM–7 AM	28	$64	0.081%
7 AM–8 AM	28	$85	0.107%
8 AM–9 AM	28	$110	0.139%
9 AM–10 AM	28	$129	0.162%
10 AM–11 AM	28	$115	0.144%
11 AM–12 PM	28	$91	0.114%
12 PM–1 PM	28	$93	0.116%
1 PM–2 PM	28	$93	0.117%
2 PM–3 PM	28	$73	0.092%
3 PM–4 PM	28	$128	0.160%
4 PM–5 PM	28	$104	0.132%
5 PM–6 PM	28	$74	0.094%
6 PM–7 PM	28	$84	0.107%
7 PM–8 PM	28	$99	0.127%
8 PM–9 PM	28	$125	0.158%
9 PM–10 PM	28	$85	0.108%
10 PM–11 PM	28	$98	0.124%
11 PM–12 AM	24	$70	0.089%

	Windows	Average move	Move %
00:00	28	$87	0.111%
01:00	28	$140	0.176%
02:00	28	$82	0.104%
03:00	28	$96	0.122%
04:00	28	$72	0.091%
05:00	26	$73	0.092%
06:00	28	$69	0.087%
07:00	24	$76	0.096%
08:00	24	$120	0.151%
09:00	28	$63	0.079%
10:00	28	$78	0.099%
11:00	28	$60	0.076%
12:00	28	$85	0.108%
13:00	28	$115	0.145%
14:00	28	$127	0.160%
15:00	28	$111	0.140%
16:00	28	$93	0.116%
17:00	28	$94	0.118%
18:00	28	$83	0.105%
19:00	28	$82	0.103%
20:00	28	$129	0.161%
21:00	28	$95	0.121%
22:00	28	$63	0.081%
23:00	28	$98	0.125%

By day of the week

	Windows	Average move	Move %
Mon	94	$108	0.135%
Tue	96	$73	0.092%
Wed	96	$93	0.115%
Thu	88	$160	0.201%
Fri	96	$110	0.142%
Sat	96	$38	0.050%
Sun	96	$63	0.080%

Quiet and active hours

The hours of the day ranked by their average move and split into thirds. How far a window moved in each: half moved less than the median, 95% less than the last column.

Hours	Windows	50% under	75% under	90% under	95% under
Quiet12 AM, 1 AM, 4 AM, 5 AM, 6 AM, 2 PM, 5 PM, 11 PM	222	$49	$91	$156	$224
Middle2 AM, 7 AM, 11 AM, 12 PM, 1 PM, 6 PM, 9 PM, 10 PM	220	$64	$128	$192	$233
Active3 AM, 8 AM, 9 AM, 10 AM, 3 PM, 4 PM, 7 PM, 8 PM	220	$80	$133	$261	$349

History describes the past, not what comes next. These numbers are information, not advice; see the Disclaimer.