About SettleMath
SettleMath shows the math behind the 15-minute Bitcoin up-or-down markets, live: where the price is against the strike, what the final minute's average is doing, which way the indicators and signals point, and how all of it has done before.
Who runs it
SettleMath is built and run by one person, a trader in Texas who trades these markets and wanted to see the numbers behind them second by second. It is a small, independent site: no investors, and no ties to Kalshi (the exchange that lists these contracts) or to any data provider. You can reach the person who built it directly, on the Contact page or in our Discord.
How it's built
The site was written with the help of AI coding tools, and the code is tested before every change goes out (several hundred automated tests). Changes go live only right after a market settles, so nobody watching a market sees the page restart in the middle of it. What keeps the site honest is that its records are public and kept forever.
Where the numbers come from
- Bitcoin's price: the official index these markets settle on (CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real Time Index), read once a second through the exchange's data feed. After every market we check the index's own final-minute average against the official settlement value; the record is on the Accuracy page.
- The market's price: the exchange's public quotes and order book, recorded once a second.
- The indicators and whale orders: public feeds from the major exchanges (spot and futures).
- The model and the signals: our own, from those recordings. Every signal's every call is scored after the market settles, wins and losses.
Where the record is
- Accuracy: every signal and model call, scored live, misses included.
- The signal bot: a simulation of the top 3 signals, every trade, checked against the real order book.
- History tables: how the markets themselves have played out.
What it is not
SettleMath is information, not advice. Nothing here tells you what to trade, and past results don't promise future ones. Event contracts involve risk of loss. See the Disclaimer.